Wales children’s health warning raises fresh questions for Rhondda Cynon Taf

Wales children’s health warning raises fresh questions for Rhondda Cynon Taf

Children’s health in Wales has failed to show the improvement that should have followed years of warnings before the COVID-19 pandemic, with new evidence pointing instead to record levels of excess weight among younger children, persistent health inequalities and deteriorating outcomes in areas including dental health, vaccination and mental wellbeing.
For Rhondda Cynon Taf, the warning is particularly serious. Pre-pandemic Welsh Government data already identified a number of local communities with high levels of child income deprivation and poorer early-life health indicators. The new Wales-wide findings do not provide an updated ward-by-ward league table for RCT, but they strongly suggest that the inequalities exposed before COVID have not been resolved—and may now be affecting children through more than one route.
The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) said Wales risks raising one of the “unhealthiest generations in decades” unless there is urgent and sustained action. Its Wales briefing, issued following the UK-wide State of Child Health 2026 report, says child-health outcomes have worsened or stagnated in several areas, with the sharpest effects felt in deprived communities.

Record unhealthy-weight figure
One of the clearest warning signs is the position of 4–5-year-olds.
In 2024/25, 27.3% of children in Wales aged 4–5 were classified as overweight or living with obesity. RCPCH says this is the highest rate recorded in Wales to date and the highest rate among the four UK nations.[rcpch]
That cannot be directly compared with the older RCT figure often cited through the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation, because the measures are different. The older figure measured obesity only, while the new Wales figure combines children who are overweight with those living with obesity.
However, the comparison remains troubling.
The WIMD 2019 results used an average from the Child Measurement Programme covering 2012/13 to 2017/18. They recorded 13.5% of RCT reception-age children as obese, above the Welsh average of 11.8% for that reference period. The obesity indicator itself was based on children aged four and five.
The latest national statistic cannot establish RCT’s current rate without the release of comparable local data. But it does show that unhealthy weight among younger children is now an entrenched Wales-wide issue, rather than a problem which has eased since the period covered by the pre-pandemic RCT statistics.

RCT’s pre-COVID warning signs
Before COVID, official Welsh Government analysis already showed that Rhondda Cynon Taf had a high burden of disadvantage affecting young children.
For 2016/17, 32% of children aged 0–4 in RCT—approximately 4,500 children—were estimated to be living in income deprivation. RCT also had a low-birth-weight rate of 6.8%, compared with 5.5% across Wales, and an obesity figure of 13.5% among reception-age children, compared with 11.8% for Wales.
The figures pointed to specific communities requiring particular attention. The Welsh Government’s small-area analysis identified the following RCT areas among those with high low-birth-weight rates:
Low-birth-weight rate in WIMD-referenced analysis

RCT locality
Tylorstown
11%
Mountain Ash
9%
Tonypandy West and Clydach Vale
9%
Glyn-coch and Ynys-y-bwl
8%
Porth West
8%
Penrhiwceiber
8%
At the smaller Lower-layer Super Output Area level, Mountain Ash West 2 was recorded at 15%. Such figures need careful interpretation because small numbers of births can make local rates fluctuate, but they are still a clear reason for services to investigate patterns over time rather than dismiss them.
Low birth weight is not simply a maternity statistic. It can be associated with increased risks for a child’s later health and development, and it is closely connected to conditions experienced before birth—including maternal health, smoking during pregnancy, nutrition, poverty, housing, stress and access to effective support.

Poverty and health remain linked
The central point from both the older RCT evidence and the latest RCPCH report is that poor child health is strongly linked to deprivation.
The WIMD analysis found that babies born in the most income-deprived tenth of small areas in Wales were nearly twice as likely to have low birth weight as babies in the least deprived tenth. It also found that children starting school in the most deprived tenth of areas were 76% more likely to be obese than those in the least deprived tenth.
The newest dental-health evidence follows the same pattern. RCPCH reports that 27% of Welsh children aged 5–6 had obvious tooth decay in 2024/25. In the most deprived areas, the proportion was 37.6%; in the least deprived areas it was 19.8%. A child living in the most deprived communities was therefore nearly twice as likely to have obvious decay.
This does not mean that families or children in particular communities should be blamed for poor health. The evidence instead points to unequal circumstances: low household income, the rising cost of food and energy, poor or insecure housing, stress, food affordability, transport difficulties, limited access to dental and health care, fewer safe opportunities for recreation, and delays in accessing preventative or specialist support.
The RCPCH identifies widening inequalities, gaps in child-health data and underinvestment in the child-health workforce as major factors behind worsening outcomes.

Dental care, mental health and asthma
The new report broadens the concern far beyond weight.
RCPCH says 135,000 children and young people in Wales are estimated to be living with a diagnosable mental-health condition. It estimates this affects around one in six children aged 8–10, one in five aged 11–16, and one in four young people aged 17–24.

Asthma-related hospital admissions for Welsh children aged 5–14 also rose sharply in September 2024, from 23 in August to 110 in September—a 378% increase. That single-month change should not be treated as proof of a sustained local trend in RCT, as asthma admissions can be seasonal and affected by infections and other short-term pressures. Nevertheless, it should prompt questions about local air quality, housing damp and mould, access to asthma reviews, inhaler technique, school support and preventable admissions.
Vaccination is another area of concern. RCPCH says very few routine childhood vaccines in Wales now meet the recommended 95% uptake level. The available national statement does not show RCT uptake by GP practice, neighbourhood or deprivation level, but those are precisely the data that should now be published and acted upon.

What cannot yet be claimed
The latest RCPCH material is an important national warning, but it does not prove that every RCT child-health outcome is worse now than it was before COVID, nor does it identify which RCT wards currently have the highest rates.
That requires current, comparable local data.
There is a risk that public bodies will cite Wales-wide averages while avoiding publication of the local evidence necessary to see whether the same RCT communities identified before COVID remain disproportionately affected.
The older data should therefore be used as a baseline and a warning—not as a substitute for current information. It is particularly important to avoid making false comparisons between the old RCT obesity-only figure and the newer Wales overweight-and-obesity figure.

Questions for RCT services
AberdareOnline believes Rhondda Cynon Taf Council, Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board and Public Health Wales should publish a post-pandemic child health inequalities report for RCT.
It should provide the most recent available figures, preferably by ward, MSOA, LSOA or deprivation quintile where disclosure rules allow, for:
• Reception-age overweight and obesity.
• Obvious dental decay and access to NHS dental care.
• Low birth weight and smoking in pregnancy.
• Childhood vaccinations, broken down by vaccine and GP cluster.
• Asthma admissions, emergency attendances and asthma reviews.
• Children’s mental-health needs, CAMHS referrals, waiting times and outcomes.
• Food insecurity, free school meals and holiday-food provision.
• Housing conditions affecting children, including damp, mould, overcrowding and fuel poverty.
• Access to play space, physical activity, school nursing and early-years support.
The report should also compare the latest position with the areas flagged in pre-pandemic analysis: Tylorstown, Mountain Ash, Tonypandy West and Clydach Vale, Glyn-coch and Ynys-y-bwl, Porth West and Penrhiwceiber.

The test now
The RCPCH has called for a clear Children’s Health Plan for Wales, rooted in prevention, early intervention, better data, transparent targets and investment that reflects the growing complexity of children’s needs.
For RCT, the immediate test is whether local public bodies can show that children in the communities facing the greatest pre-COVID disadvantage are healthier, better supported and more able to access care today.
Without current local data, publicly reported targets and properly funded preventative services, it will be impossible to demonstrate that the health gap has narrowed. The national evidence released this week suggests there is little basis for complacency.

https://www.rcpch.ac.uk/news-events/news/2026-09/paediatricians-fear-children-wales-may-become-unhealthiest-generation