The latest report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies has confirmed what the Welsh Conservatives have been saying for years: despite Wales receiving higher levels of funding per person than England, health and education outcomes in Wales continue to lag behind the rest of the UK. The report suggests that the issue is not simply funding levels, but policy decisions and the way services are delivered by the Welsh Government.
During the cooperation agreement between Labour and Plaid Cymru, spending was prioritised on a range of non-essential initiatives instead of focusing on improving core public services. Examples include £120 million on creating more politicians, £35 million on the default 20mph speed limit policy, funding for tree planting projects in Uganda, over £24 million on a Universal Basic Income pilot which ran over budget, £181 million spent propping up Cardiff Airport with a further £205 million planned, approximately £218 million on “active travel” projects between 2018 and 2024, over £65 million in Active Travel grants to local authorities in 2024–25, and nearly £50 million more allocated for 2025–26.
Commenting, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care, Peter Fox MS said:
“Today’s report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies confirms that after 27 years, decisions made by Labour and Plaid Cymru have left our public services in a mess.
“Despite spending on health increasing significantly, patients are waiting longer for treatment and A&E performance continues to worsen.
“The Welsh Conservatives have a clear and credible plan to cut wasteful spending, restore performance, cut waiting times and deliver the timely care people across Wales deserve.”
Also commenting, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Education, Natasha Asghar MS, said
“Wales receives more funding per person for health and education than England, yet delivers poorer outcomes. That should set alarm bells ringing about how these services are being run.
Labour and Plaid can’t keep blaming funding when independent experts say the real problem lies in policy decisions and accountability. Clearly this isn’t a funding problem – it’s a policy problem.
After 27 years in charge, they’ve failed to improve education in Wales. Only the Welsh Conservatives have a credible plan to deliver the standards our pupils deserve.”
Here is a summary of the findings, focusing on the delivery failures and fiscal challenges facing the current administration.
Health: Higher Spending, Longer Waits
Despite a 17% real-terms increase in health spending per person since 2019, the Welsh NHS is struggling with efficiency.
- The Wait Gap: While waiting lists are finally dipping, the median wait for treatment is 19 weeks—nearly double the pre-pandemic level and significantly longer than England’s 13.4 weeks.
- Productivity Slump: The NHS has 24% more staff than in 2019, yet inpatient admissions have only just returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- A&E Crisis: Performance in emergency departments is actually worsening; only 53% of patients are seen within four hours, missing the 95% target by a mile.
- The “Stay” Problem: Hospital stays in Wales are 40% longer than in England, which blocks beds and slows down the entire system.
Education: A System in Retreat
The report describes the state of Welsh education as “under-performing” across several key metrics compared to the rest of the UK.
- PISA Rankings: Welsh pupils saw their performance drop further than their English counterparts in international tests. Remarkably, average-income pupils in Wales perform no better than the poorest 20% of pupils in England.
- School Absence: Daily absence is 50% higher than in 2019. More concerning is that 34% of pupils are now “persistently absent.”
- The Post-16 Cliff: The share of 16- and 17-year-olds in full-time education has plummeted from 78% to 64% over the last decade.
The Funding Reality Check
A common political argument is that Welsh services are underfunded, but the IFS data suggests otherwise.
- Cash vs. Results: Education spending is 7% higher and health spending 9% higher per person than in England.
- The “Westminster” Lifeline: The report notes that the Welsh Government likely would have been forced to make emergency in-year cuts to services if the UK government hadn’t provided funding top-ups in the 2026 Spring Statement.
- Future Outlook: To keep protecting the health budget, the next Welsh Government may have to slash other departments (like culture, housing, or transport) by an average of 5% per year.
The Bottom Line
The IFS concludes that the “key driver” of poor performance isn’t a lack of money, but rather how services are delivered and managed. With a funding slowdown on the horizon and unrealistic budgeting for 2026–27, the next administration inherits a system where more money is producing diminishing returns.
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